CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-21T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8736/-1
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T23:00Z (+7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

1st run
CME arrival at target (date & UT time): June, 22 2015 at 23UT
Impact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 794 km/s
Input parameters: 
CME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT
? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1200 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°
Rtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° 

2nd run
CME arrival at target (date & UT time): June 23, 2015 at 06UT
Impact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 684 km/s
Input parameters:
CME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT
? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 400 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1000 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°
Rtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° 

We used Schween (2005) and Gopalswamy relation for halo CME expansion to radial speed. From this we derive around 1000-1200 km/s at a distance of 15Rs. The solar wind is expected to be of 400km/s as derived from SolarWind Forecasting tools (http://swe.uni-graz.at/solarwind/).

Lead Time: 11.52 hour(s)
Difference: -5.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2015-06-22T06:28Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy