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Prediction for CME (2015-06-21T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-06-21T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8736/-1
CME Note: From near disk center, AR 12371. Associated with M-class flares.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T17:59Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -195
Dst min. time: 2015-06-23T05:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-22T23:00Z (+7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

1st run
CME arrival at target (date & UT time): June, 22 2015 at 23UT
Impact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 794 km/s
Input parameters: 
CME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT
? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 450 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1200 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°
Rtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° 

2nd run
CME arrival at target (date & UT time): June 23, 2015 at 06UT
Impact speed at target (at 1.02 AU): 684 km/s
Input parameters:
CME take-off date & UT time: 21-JUN-2015 at 05UT
? = 0.10×10-7 km-1, w = 400 km/s,
R0 = 15 rSun, v0 = 1000 km/s, ? = 30°, ?CME = -10°
Rtarget = 1.02 AU, ?target = 0° 

We used Schween (2005) and Gopalswamy relation for halo CME expansion to radial speed. From this we derive around 1000-1200 km/s at a distance of 15Rs. The solar wind is expected to be of 400km/s as derived from SolarWind Forecasting tools (http://swe.uni-graz.at/solarwind/).

Lead Time: 11.52 hour(s)
Difference: -5.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Manuela Temmer (UNIGRAZ) on 2015-06-22T06:28Z

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